Resumen del episodio
In this episode, we are joined by Chris Murray, quantitative researcher and former equity quant and trader, and Marco Sammon, Assistant Professor of Finance at Harvard Business School, for an exceptionally nerdy deep dive into leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Drawing on their research, Chris and Marco challenge common assumptions about daily rebalancing, volatility drag, and the long-term performance of leveraged products, offering a more rigorous framework for understanding how these investments actually work. We explore the mathematics of compounding, the surprising relationship between leverage and long-term returns, and the competing effects of what Chris and Marco call the "convexity bonus" and volatility drag. They explain why leveraged ETFs don't simply deliver a multiple of an underlying asset's long-term return, how financing costs and fund fees compound over time, and why a stock can rise substantially while its leveraged ETF still underperforms. We also examine how daily rebalancing can…
In this episode, we are joined by Chris Murray, quantitative researcher and former equity quant and trader, and Marco Sammon, Assistant Professor of Finance at Harvard Business School, for an exceptionally nerdy deep dive into leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Drawing on their research, Chris and Marco challenge common assumptions about daily rebalancing, volatility drag, and the long-term performance of leveraged products, offering a more rigorous framework for understanding how these investments actually work. We explore the mathematics of compounding, the surprising relationship between leverage and long-term returns, and the competing effects of what Chris and Marco call the "convexity bonus" and volatility drag. They explain why leveraged ETFs don't simply deliver a multiple of an underlying asset's long-term return, how financing costs and fund fees compound over time, and why a stock can rise substantially while its leveraged ETF still underperforms. We also examine how daily rebalancing can…
Episodios
How Leveraged ETFs Really Work (Marco Sammon & Chirs Murray) | #432
EscuchadoIn this episode, we are joined by Chris Murray, quantitative researcher and former equity quant and trader, and Marco Sammon, Assistant Professor of Finance at Harvard Business School, for an exceptionally nerdy deep dive into leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Drawing on their research, Chris and Marco challenge common assumptions about daily rebalancing, volatility drag, and the long-term performance of leveraged products, offering a more rigorous framework for understanding how these investments actually work. We explore the mathematics of compounding, the surprising relationship between leverage and long-term returns, and the competing effects of what Chris and Marco call the "convexity bonus" and volatility drag. They explain why leveraged ETFs don't simply deliver a multiple of an underlying asset's long-term return, how financing costs and fund fees compound over time, and why a stock can rise substantially while its leveraged ETF still underperforms. We also examine how daily rebalancing can…
The Madness of Markets (Alex Edmans) | #431
EscuchadoIn this episode, we welcome back Alex Edmans, Professor of Finance at London Business School and author of Grow the Pie, May Contain Lies, and The Madness of Markets. Drawing on academic research and real-world market examples, Alex explores how emotions, social influence, and psychological biases shape investor behavior—and why even apparently irrational markets can be difficult to beat. We examine how a country's stock market can react to a football loss, why investors overreact to exciting stories and underreact to less visible information, and how identical assets can trade at different prices. Alex also unpacks the evidence behind reversal, value, and momentum strategies, the challenges of exploiting market anomalies, and why skewed stock returns make diversification so important. The conversation ultimately returns to a fundamental investing question: even if you can identify market inefficiencies, do you have the edge, patience, and cost advantage needed to benefit from them? Sources From Today's…
The Truth About Leveraged ETFs | #430
EscuchadoIn this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Kelly Thomas revisit some of the blind spots from their recent discussion about the finances of marriage before diving into a deeply nerdy discussion about leveraged ETFs. Kelly brings a different perspective to questions around spending roles, career sacrifices, financial autonomy, and the mental load of managing household finances. The main discussion explores leverage, human capital, volatility drag, and the long-held belief that daily resets make leveraged ETFs poor long-term investments. Ben explains how his own thinking changed after feedback from the Rational Reminder community and a growing body of research, arguing that daily resets themselves do not cause volatility drag—volatility does. The conversation examines when leverage might make theoretical sense, why the safety of human capital is a critical assumption, and why what looks optimal in a model may be difficult to stick with in real life. They also examine the practical risks and costs of…
Who Causes Stock Market Anomalies? (w/ Victor Haghani) | #429
EscuchadoIn this episode, we're joined by Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and co-author of The Missing Billionaires, for a wide-ranging conversation about how different types of investors shape financial markets. Victor explains the framework behind his forthcoming paper, Who Killed the Random Walk?, and how fundamental investors, static investors, and extrapolators interact to produce momentum, excess volatility, and other market anomalies. We explore why return chasing is different from momentum investing, how investor flows and inelastic demand can move markets, and how the Merton share connects expected returns and risk to portfolio allocation. Victor also discusses long-short direct indexing and tax-loss harvesting, his experiment giving investors tomorrow's Wall Street Journal today, how AI performed in the same trading game, the role of leverage in financial markets, and when borrowing to invest might make sense. We finish with Victor's advice to his younger self: be intentional about financial planning,…
Wealthy People Are Hiding in Plain Sight (ft. Owen Zidar) | #428
EscuchadoWhat happens when a small group of exceptionally wealthy people holds a growing share of a country's income and wealth? And what can economics tell us about the forces behind that concentration? In this episode, we are joined by Owen Zidar, professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University and coauthor of the forthcoming book The Everywhere Millionaire. We explore the rise of the millionaire class, how tax policy shapes inequality, and why the geography of wealth matters when trying to understand the economic landscape. We also discuss the role of entrepreneurship, industry-specific knowledge, and concentrated ownership in building wealth. Owen shares insights from extensive Treasury data, interviews with business owners, and research into the paths taken by millions of entrepreneurs. The conversation examines why access to capital may be less important than practical experience, how private equity can help or hurt business owners, and how local business consolidation can affect both…